Although the 2026 Midterm Elections are still a little more than 18 months away, we’re predicting that the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Sen. Gary Peters will stay in Democrats’ hands.
Perhaps that’s bold given Michigan is a swing state, but here’s what I’m seeing…
Despite President Donald Trump’s narrow victory in Michigan by 1.4 percent in 2024, it’s important to recognize that the Wolverine State continues to lean Democrat. This is clearly demonstrated by its recent presidential election history and the fact that both current U.S. senators and the governor are Democrats. Furthermore, consider that while Trump achieved a slim win last year, Michigan voters simultaneously elected Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat, to the other U.S. Senate seat. These factors suggest that Democrats have a slight advantage.
As of the November 2024 elections, Republicans regained control of the Michigan State House, breaking the Democratic trifecta. However, Democrats still hold the governorship, secretary of state, and attorney general offices, giving them a “Democratic triplex” but not full legislative control.
Because Michigan leans slightly left, the onus is on Republicans to get some left-leaning independents and/or conservative Democrats to crossover. And for that to happen, the economy and the Trump Administration will have to be riding high at the time of the election (Nov 2026), and we’re betting against both.
Secondly, Democratic Representative Haley Stevens has formally declared her candidacy for the vacant seat. At the youthful age of 41, Representative Stevens was elected to the House of Representatives in 2018 and currently serves on both the House Education and Workforce Committee and the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee. Additionally, she held the position of Chief of Staff for the Presidential Task Force on the Auto Industry during President Obama’s administration. She’ll bring youth and substantive experience to the race and will be the favorite from the start.
Stevens will be tough to beat.
PREDICTION: Barring an extraordinary circumstance, look for Democrats to hold on in Michigan. That said, they shouldn’t take this race lightly, as Michigan has proven to be swingy. Democrat candidate +4